Real ona8/19/2023 Levels of import coverage over the medium term, albeit remaining well above Reserves are expected to stabilize at slightly lower The significant improvement in the current account is expected to abateĪs oil prices stabilize and imports pick up, supported by a sizable Pressures from diminishing labor market slack and a booming non-oil economy. Strong currency, subsidies, and gasoline price cap offset inflationary Percent, the average CPI will be slightly higher than in 2022, even though a Headline inflation will be contained in 2023.At 2.8 The April 2023 OPEC+ production cuts would reduce overall real growth toĢ.1 percent in 2023, non-oil growth is expected to average 5 percent in 2023Īnd remain above potential as strong consumption spending and accelerated Non-oil growth momentum is expected to remain strong.While To 2022 -but remain at comfortable levels (about 20-month import cover).ĮCONOMIC PROSPECTS – POSITIVE OUTLOOK WITH BALANCED RISKS Reserves fell by $30 billion in April 2023 relative Increase in official reserves in view of the large accumulation of assetsĪbroad. However, the 13.6 percent of GDP surplus did not lead to a corresponding Higher oil prices and stepped-up oil production improved the currentĪccount to a 10-year high surplus in 2022. Observed for low skilled workers and highly specialized workers, but Prices offset the substantial increase in rent. Y-o-y in April 2023, as declining contributions from transport and food Despite an uptick inĮarly 2023 to 3.4 percent y-o-y, headline inflation is back at 2.7 percent In 2022, exceeding the 30 percent target under Vision 2030.ĭespite a booming economic activity, inflation remains low and appearsĪverage CPI grew by 2.5 percent y-o-y in 2022, in part contained byĭomestic subsidies/price cap and a strong US dollar. Two years while female participation in the labor force reached 36 percent Youth unemployment was halved to 16 percent in 2022 over the past The construction and agricultural sector) rising back above pre-Covid In Saudi workers in the private sector and expatriate workers (mostly in Percent by end-2022-from 9 percent during Covid-reflecting both an increase AmidĪn increase in labor force participation, total unemployment dropped to 4.8 The Saudi unemployment rate is at a historical low. The output gap is estimated to have closed during 2022 and the momentum isĬontinuing in 2023, with nowcasting estimates suggesting non-oil growth Trade, construction, and transport were the main drivers of non-oil growth. Overall growth reached 8.7 percent, reflecting both strong oil productionĪnd a 4.8 percent non-oil GDP growth driven by robust private consumptionĪnd non-oil private investment, including giga projects. Saudi Arabia was the fastest growing G20 economy in 2022. Impressive structural reform agenda will help generate a strong, With careful calibration of investment programs, will help strengthenįiscal and external sustainability while implementation of the Going forward, continued fiscal reforms, coupled Uncertainty in the global economy-both impacting financial conditionsĪnd oil prices-requires continued efforts to further build buffers andĭiversify the economy. Surplus has reached a decade-high surplus and inflation is contained. Up in private investment and reform implementation. The Saudi economy is booming, spurred by high oil prices, a strong pick Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments. A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country.
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